Is there a twinkle of hope on the horizon???

If you listen to the media... we are still in a housing slump. They love to cause chaos and fear. It's all for the ratings... NAR (National Association of REALTORS (r) has released statements that this seems to be as low as it gets. (it may stay flat but won't get worse) The word must be getting around. In my little world, I am starting to see more and more activity happening. My phone is beginning to ring again. (Here I have be blaming Verizon all this time.) Historically, this time of year is slow, regardless of the market conditions. But I am seeing more activity with my colleagues also.

Looking at the condos from last month there was an increase in contracts over last year. A 43.5% jump actually... This is a good sign of things to come. Inventory in Frederick and Washington counties seem to be dropping off (1675 active listings). A couple things could be happening here... Sellers are waiting for the spring market or they have dropped anchor and decided to stay awhile. The sales have not lowered the inventory, the sellers have. Hopefully this leveling is stays steady for a while. Too much inventory is not healthy either. As for the prices, surprisingly the average is still up in Frederick by just a little. Average Sales price is $347,386 and the median sales price is down by 2.04% to $311,950. So, what does that say? Buyers are looking at a lower price range, but the prices of the house are about the same as last year. What I am seeing in most prices, yes some are lowering in overpriced neighborhoods, but for the most part it is not the value of the home that is going down, its the seller's situations. If you haven't been paying attention to the media (they are right about one thing), the first steps of the ARMs are starting to appear. Some sellers cannot afford the increase, forcing them to price below market price. The other situation, sellers have been caught up in between houses (new construction homes)...forcing them to drop the price to get a buyer. Builders don't care what your situation is...they built a house for you...you're buying it. Now, builders have also found themselves in a sticky situation with too much inventory on the books. They have deeper pockets than most sellers, so they offer 1000s of dollars in upgrades on their already drastically reduced homes in order to get a sale before the end of the year. Unfortunately this has/will have affected your future appraisals and prices along with the other seller's personal situations. There is no getting by it. When you gotta go, you gotta go.

It will be interesting to see what the spring market has to offer. Stay tuned for more!!!

Here are some stats from last month in Frederick County

Washington County last month;

105 solds
1245 active listings
113 Days on Market
91.2% of list price.

Washington county is also seeing buyers looking at much lower priced homes. The average was down by 2.82% to $248,904 with a median price of $225,000 (down 4.26%) You can count on one hand how many homes over $450,000 sold last month.

Tips for a Smoother Loan Process

Here is something I picked up from my friends at Prosperity mortgage...It's some quick do's and don'ts to help you get through the mortgage process.

DO

KEEP ORIGINALS OF ALL PAYSTUBS, BANK STATEMENTS, AND OTHER IMPORTANT FINANCIAL DOCS.

PROVIDE ALL DOCS FOR THE SALE OF YOUR CURRENT HOME. (IF YOU ARE SELLING ONE) EX: SALES CONTRACT, CLOSING STATEMENT, EMPLOYER RELO/BUYOUT PROGRAM.

NOTIFY YOUR LOAN OFFICER IF YOU PLAN ON RECEIVING GIFT FUNDS. NO CASH GIFTS!

NOTIFY YOUR LOAN OFFICER OF ANY EMPLOYMENT CHANGES. EX:CHANGE OF EMPLOYER, RECENT RAISE OR PROMOTION, CHANGE IN PAY STATUS SUCH AS MOVE TO SALARY OR COMMISSION STATUS.

DON’T

• CHANGE JOBS / EMPLOYER WITHOUT INQUIRING ABOUT HOW THIS WILL IMPACT THE APPROVAL OF YOUR MORTGAGE LOAN
• MAKE MAJOR PURCHASES DURING AND PRIOR TO LOAN CLOSING EX; BUYING A NEW CAR, LARGE FURNITURE, APPLIANCES, OR ELECTRONICS. THIS COULD IMPACT YOUR QUALIFYING DEBT RATIOS. TALK TO YOUR LENDER BEFORE MAKING THE PURCHASES.
• OBTAIN OR DEPOSIT LARGE SUMS OF MONEY OVER $500 WITHOUT NOTIFYING YOUR LOAN OFFICER. LENDER GUIDLEINES WILL REQUIRE THAT THE SOURCE OF THESE MONIES IS DOCUMENTED.
• OPEN, CLOSE, OR TRANSFER ANY STOCK, SAVINGS, OR OTHER ASSETT ACCOUNTS WITHOUT FINDING OUT FROM YOUR LOAN OFFICER WHAT DOCUMENTATION WILL BE REQUIRED FOR YORU LOAN FILE.
• OPEN OR INCREASE ANY LIABILITIES (CREDIT CARDS , SIGNATURE LOANS, ETC) DURING THE LOAN PROCESS.WITHOUT CHECKING WITH YOUR LOAN OFFICER TO FIND OUT HOW THIS WOULD IMPACT YOUR MORTGAGE LOAN.
  

Now how about some numbers around Frederick County.

Total active homes on the market today......... 1816

New to market last 2 days.................................29

Under contract the last 7 days.............................53

Couple other numbers to know.

Saturation Rate. Frederick is about 12.5% (that means only 12.5% of the homes sell any given month) you have about a 1 in 9 chance of selling this month.

Washington County is sitting on 9.5% or 1 in 11 chance in selling.

Click here to see last month's Housing report.

Update on the GMA house

Well, it still has not sold. But the neighbor's did for $295,000 in 3 days. They are looking to rent now at $2,500...that still doesn't match up. Doesn't seem to be a $2,500 rent neighborhood to me...Sounds like some Seller Denial to me... Price is king in this era.

Here is the Frederick County Housing Report

You can find Washington County and others stats about the market here

Different day...same ole story

It's been a while, I know... Not much has changed in the market lately. We are still battling long days on market and high inventories. Interest rates have actually dropped over the last few months. Encouraging but not enough to bring the buyers out of hiding. You know its bad when GMA's real estate challenge.. "How to Sell your House in One Week" can't sell. They staged the house, priced it aggressively and prepared for an Open House. Now let's see what is different here for us normal realtors... National coverage, they had a radio station promoting it at the house, they had 80 people thru the house and only 3 were "interested" buyers... And they couldn't sell!!! Even they were lost for words. This is the reality of the market... slow. (or just slower, much slower, than we have been used to) This is is considered a normal market... at least that is what I keep telling myself. Now on to the numbers... take a look at the numbers from the past...not much change.

Total active homes in Frederick County.... 1896
New in the last 2 days.........60
Under contract last 7 days....71


Total active homes in Washington Cty.....1237
New in the last 2 days........23
Under contract last 7 days...20

ABC News talks about the national housing bubble

Here are some ABC news experts talking about the national housing market conditions. http://mail.longandfoster.com/exchweb/bin/redir.asp?URL=http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=2351163

Take a look and tell me what you think. I have mentioned some of this in the past. Buyers have great opportunity, but have been scarce. Some sellers have not woke up to reality!

Here are the current numbers for Frederick and Washington county.

Frederick
Total.....1899
New last 2 days...54
Under contract last 7 days...74

Washington County
Total active listings.....1226
New last 2 days...31
Under contract last 7 days...28

Almost Time to go back to School!!!

Alright, summer is almost officially over. Now what? Back to school, football, Frederick Fair, raking leaves, longer rush hours on 270 since everyone is back to work. House sales tend to slow down now with a little increase from early fall to Thanksgiving.

Not much has happened in the past month... there was a small spike in activity the last couple weeks. The trends are heading to a more favorable buyer market. The inventory on hand is a little more than 5 months. When you have 6 months of inventory, it is a "normal" market. When you are below 6 months, you are . Of course when you are above 6, it favors the buyers. What does 6 month of inventory mean? If we stopped adding new homes on the market, there would be enough homes to sell for the next 6 months. (based on the average number of sales the last 6 months) There are still a lot of homes out there...condition and price are the key motivators for the buyers. Seller subsidies are becoming a common request from buyers also.

Total homes on market today..... 1985
Under contract in the last 7 days....77
New to the market in the last 2 days...87

So, How's the Real Estate Biz?? UNBELIEVABLE!!!

Yep...unbelievable!!! Can you believe the number of houses on the market? Nope. Can you believe how long it's taking to sell a house? Nope. Can you believe the cost of gasoline? Nope. Can you believe what you hear on the news media about Real Estate? Nope....ah well some of it. All right, all of you that have bought houses back in the eighties...raise your hands! What was your mortgage interest rate? And you still bought the house?!!? Why... your payments had to be horrible...what? You wanted a place to live and call your own? (Yeah, I know the prices were no where near what they are today) Let's face it...nothing cost as little now as it did back then. So what is happen with today's market? Did everyone decide that they would wait it out so see if the prices come down. (historically in this area they never have) Maybe a few that were way over priced in the first place will come down. This market is normallizing. We just have been drunk and disorderly with the market. Home Owners have made mega bucks in the last few years...So they made a lot of money on their investment. AH, see the word investment...that's the key. People jumped in and out of Real Estate the last few years to get a good return on their investment... well in a normal market you live in your home, your castle, your little piece of the pie, live the American Dream. It's not your 401K, which is ran by the Stock Market. In a normal market your home is your long term low risk investment, not short term high risk investment. That is exactly what a lot of people are finding out...high risk. If you didn't refinance or sell... you are at risk of losing your home. Keep your eyes open...you'll start to see them. The first step of the interest only loans will be showing thier ugly faces...let's hope most people did not buy the biggest house they could afford on interest only... hopefully they had room for increasing taxes, increases in interests rates... not Like they say in Texas Hold'em... All-in!!! Lets hope not.

But back to the lurkers, waiting for the market to crash, the bubble to burst... what are you waiting for? I still haven't figured that one out. OK, you are waiting for that deal of a life time or the house you have had your eye on for sometime to drop $10,000 to $20,0000. Whats the hurry right? It has been on the market for more than 70 days. Lets see now. The interest rates have climbed over the last few months and some prices have dropped. If you wait too long the climbing interest rates will off set the "deal of a lifetime" with higher payments on a lower priced house. Of course, if we had a crystal ball, we would all be rich and live in big homes with no mortgage payments. But, the reality of it is, we need to make a decision and live with it. No time like the present.

Here are some of the numbers on Frederick County.

Total homes ......................................1832
New listings in the last 2 days........... 45
Under contract in the last 7 days...... 77
(of which have been on the market for an average of 70 days)

Now go to one of my earlier post and see what the numbers were a few months ago

Spring Market...is it over?

Its looking like the spring has sprung as we head into the last weekend in May. The latest housing report shows contracts and settlements way down over last year. (Almost a 20% decrease) I will post a link to the Parade Magazine article tomorrow about the market. I found it interesting.

Sorry so short today.

Here are Frederick Counties latest numbers (and then some);

Total 1654
New the last 2 days 53
Under Contract last 7 days 79






Active Listings 1654
Average active price on market now $473,695
Average number of days on market 77
Condos 103
Townhomes 527
Detached SFH 1065
Lowest price Listing $12,500 (Mobile home only not the land it sits on)
Highest price Listing $6,990,000 (Egypt Farms in Burkittsville)

Under Contract Listings Month to date 274
Average price $369,583
Average days on market 55
Condos 25
Townhomes 101
Detached SFH 148

OK, OK... I slacked off a bit

I took some time off to squeeze in a vacation and then play catch up. Vacations are great. You need to recharge yourself and spend time with the family. I must say that this vacation was more like work than a vacation. It was the first time we ever went to Disney World. You have to be in marathon shape to see everything. We tried...5 parks in 5 days. Next time, we'll know...Slow it down and only do a couple parks. There is too much to see in this area.

Anyways, back on the home front. The inventory still on a small climb. The house prices are still on a climb but nothing like we had last year or prior. I am seeing about a 5% appreciation over last year. Some homes from 2000 to 2005 experienced 60-90% appreciation. Great investment!!! But now at what cost? I was just having a conversation with a friend the other day about the market...(you know being in Real Estate, its unavoidable) We started talking about the interest rates and loan programs that all these buyers used to get into these homes. My opinion to him was, we will start see some foreclosures in the next 6-18 months. Why...my thoughts (THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION) that some of the Interest Only loans and Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) will be expiring or closing in on the first step rate increase. If they have not made arrangements to refinance or sell prior to this they are looking at substantial increase in payments. Example; 5/1 ARM @ 5% on a $400,000 loan and annual taxes $3,000 is $2,072. 30 yr fixed @ 6.5% is $2,828 (there are other variables to consider but you get the idea) Unfortunately, some did not plan for this. I always said that Interest Only Loans are great if you use them wisely. We no longer hold on to homes like our parents. This generation moves on average 3-7 years. So no more Promissary Note burning in the back yard when dad finally made the last payment on the house. So, while we move more often, why pay higher mortgage payments? Unless you are doubling up on payments, you are not making a major impact on your principal for the first few years. But finance wisely... know your options and what you can afford in worse case scenarios. GMA had a little blurb this morning about this...it seems that Texas and New Jersey are starting to show signs of foreclosures. Their predictions were in line with my thoughts...wow... I'm physic!

Total Homes 1,572
New in the last 2 days 52
Under Contract last 7 days 90
Average Days on Market 65 (some areas are better, some are worse)

It's a zoo out there

If you are selling your home today, you have a lot of company. Signs are showing we headed in to a more "normalize" market. What does that mean to the average seller? You have to look at the buyer a little differently now. You will start seeing more contingencies on your offers. If you were expecting the same results as your neighbors had last year, don't hold your breath. Offers last year, dare not have any contingencies nor ask the seller to do anything but offer up the keys after I pay higher than asking price. This year, your agent will have to be more creative in getting your property noticed. Let's say you have a 3 bedroom 2 bath detached colonial. Your buyer, depending on price have 32 homes to look at. What makes your house different from the rest? (here's the average of all the homes)

There are a few things that can make the difference. Value Range Marketing is one. You will have to contact me for more info on this one. So you finally get an offer. And the buyer has a home to sale before they get to buy yours? They want an FHA loan to finance it at less that asking price, a home inspection, a radon inspection, and they want you to foot the closing cost? What should you do? Well, you can have your agent negotiate some of this down (if possible) to help keep some equity in your pocket, but for the most part, ACCEPT IT! (in the last 5 years some homes made more money than your annual salary. Stats show an increase of 90% from 2000 to 2005) Do you see the maximum number of DOMP and DOMM above? Can you wait that long to sale your house? The average has been 50 days in this category, but depending on the circumstances have lasted a long time. Don't be afraid to negotiate, but don't run if you don't get anywhere. Most homes after they sit for some time end up reducing their price, offering incentives AND STILL end up accepting the above offer! FHA loans are not what they used to be...The government got wise (imagine that!) They had trouble footing FHA loans in the last few years, because they had asked the sellers to do so much in exchange for the buyer to finance the house. And they were very strict on how things were repaired. But now, they are almost in line with a basic conventional loan. So, don't run when you see this offer, ask questions. Ask your self, can you afford NOT to accept the terms of this loan, what will it cost me later if I wait for a better offer?


60 New homes added in the last 2 days
83 Under contract in the last 7 days
1360 Total Homes for sale in Frederick
Here is last months official Stats from Frederick Association of Realtors

Staging Real Estate, who us?

Here again, GMA (Good Morning America) is talking about real estate. This time the sky wasn't falling. They were out to tell the world our trade secrets. What it comes down to is that the we secretly stage the properties to make them sell! Of course we do, part our job is to make ETHICAL suggestions to make your property as attractive to buyers as possible. You see there are real estate agents that don't subscribe to a strict of code of ethics as REALTORS® and may not be ethically in their suggestions to the home owners. By Maryland law, if there is a problem with the house..You have to disclose the fact. Anyways, back on topic...Yes we make suggestions to make the house more appealing to the buyer. Digitally repairing pictures has gone wild in today's technology. Don't believe me, look at your "Glamour Shots" photo...YOU LOOK GREAT (is that you?) Some REALTORS® use that same concept to enhance photos. Which one looks more attractive below?


The home owner had a grass patch down at the time of the photo. This is not hiding a problem. It is only making it more attractive for online viewing. This yard does look very similarar to the picture on the right now. GMA also said that agents digitally insert furniture into empty rooms. Now, that is a great idea. I don't know about hiding the view out the window, like they said. If there is an ugly building outside the window, but the picture shows bright fluffy clouds. That's a little deceiving. As most disclaimers on MLS sites say...Information deemed accurate but not warranted. You must verify all information yourself. (or something to that affect)


And yes, when we have the chance, we stage the showings. If possible, we try to show ones that are not as attractive early in the trip and put the more appealing ones closer to the end and then end with a dud. Don't take this the wrong way. If you are working with a good agent, the agent will know what you are looking for in a home. Afterall he/she has been in the car with you for sometime, he/she will be able to pick up on your needs and wants. This process only helps you, the buyer, make a decision. In today's market, you can see a lot of houses before you find the one you like. Good agents, are out looking at houses all the time, whether virtually on-line or physically in the house. Buyers can be awe struck by some of the cosmetics of the house and the excitement of the process. We try to match them up with all of their needs. Ultimately the buyer is still in charge and makes the final decision.

GMA mentioned about zillow.com. This is the latest buzz in the virtual world. My comment is this..Look at the pictures above..Don't always believe what you see. Ask your agent to pull comparable homes for you. They will be so much more accurate. Now the secrets are out... we try to make homes sell.

48 new in the last 2 days
77 under contract in the last 7
1278 total homes active in Frederick County

Spring or Not Spring...

Well, it seems that Spring is here because I can see the flowers behind the snow flurries... We have been spoiled this winter. I believe we have had more 60+ degree days this winter than snow days which has really confused the local plant life. But you know, March is not over and we have had some nice size blizzards in March... (we can only hope.) I happen to like the snow, it should be on the ground between the months of November and February. Don't you think?

Soon the flurries will turn to rain and the flowers will blossom. I say this because, homes will be able to stand out. Winter has such a dismal affect on home curb appeal (unless it is a holiday.) I like to see when home owners have pride in the way the front of their house is presented to the public. Bright flowers, edged sidewalks, trimmed bushes and fresh mulch. Mulch has to be the quickest and cheapest fix to brighten up the house. Compliment that with some perennials and wahlah!!! Curb appeal has a major impact on the presentation. With 1200+ homes on the market...Sellers need to do everything they can to stand out from the pack...and do it in a good way. A broken wheel barrow propped up against the rusted antique car in the driveway is not! Presentation, Location and Price...key elements in a successful sale.


64 New in the last 2 Days
424 Month to Date
81 Under Contract in last 7 Days
318 Month to Date
1242 Total Homes for Sale in Frederick County
281 Withdrawn/Expired/Temp Off Market

In case you were wonder how many homes are on the market in neighboring counties
814 in Washington County
2894 in Montgomery County
1010 in Howard County
699 in Carroll County

GMA...Bubble Trouble

Good Morning America had a story this morning about the "Real Estate Bubble" That's all we seem to hear from the National Media..."Has the Bubble Burst...News at 11" "Interest Only loans the latest craze...is it putting young couples at risk? Stay tune for our report!" It can make a person paranoid. I didn't hear the "POP" but I do hear a slow leak that started about mid July last year. It seems that the expert on GMA didn't hear it either. I have to agree with what she did say...move because you want to. If all of this talk about the bubble has you worried about holding onto a risky piece of property, then sell. If your family is happy with your location and you can't see your self picking up and moving...then stay. Just like the stock market you always runs some type of risk with your investment. Depreciation, High interest rates.

Look around, the only homes that are really staying on the market forever....are the ones that don't show well, the location or the price. Truly, these are the only three reasons why a home does not sale, Location, Presentation, and price. Home owners today, have control over two of them (price and presentation) With as many homes on the market today. (1201 in Frederick County) Owners need to be on top of their game if they want to move quickly in this market. The house prices are still going up, just not at the record rate that we were used to. Homes have to show their best at all times.

81 under contract
44 new to the market (this will pick up tomorrow. Most agents put the on MLS today and tomorrow)
1201 total properties in Frederick County.

So use YOUR best judgement for YOU when it's time to sell.

Uncle Sam... My dog(s) ate my receipts!!!

Alright, I have not been the most organized person last year with all my receipts. My New Year's Resolution this year is to manage my receipts better than last year. (That's not hard to do...I have one pile) This year, I will make 12! Tonight, I meet with my CPA...I am sure the bill will be double.

Anyways...Today's numbers
59 new listings
76 under contract
1142 total active listings in the county.
What I found in the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems today; the total sold last month was 237 with average days on market at 74 and average price of $365,624. The solds are down from last year by almost a hundred, prices are up by almost $40k and the inventory is more that doubled. Again, showing us it is a different market from years past.

By the way... The dog pictured above (Benson) did survive the mess he made in the above picture. Please notice the date of the next one...

I can only image what was was going through Buster's (the good dog pictured below) mind when he had seen what Benson did on the next day.

That prompted the creation of a "Free to a Good Home" flyer.

And yes he is still here...

Warmer than normal...Where's the contracts

Ok...The snow has melted, where are all of the contracts? Slooowly it is picking up. This weeks contracts were up from last week but not by much. 75 in the last week, with a total of 289 for the month. The new listings are still at a slow pace with only 53 this week and a total of 463 for the month. The total inventory in Frederick County sits at an almost all time high of 1141. The numbers seem to lopsided as I mentioned last week. So, I started to pull the expired and withdrawn listings. The make up the difference with 178 for the month. IMHO, I see the frustration in the sellers as the sellers are switching agents because their home is not selling. I am seeing a lot more CKO contracts...(Contigency with a Kick Out) Buyers are now making offers on homes with a "Home to sale" contigency. Homes are sitting on the market for a little longer these days... About 85 days on average. In other words...The market is normalizing. Buyers have choices and sellers need to be flexible to make contracts work. This is not a bad thing, we needed to slow it down a little before our entry level homes become $500,000 for first time buyers.

After the snow melts...

I have been watching for some time now the inventory of homes in Frederick County. I usually watch the total number of homes, the new contracts, and new listings. My information comes for the listing information in the Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (my MLS company).

I have always been a numbers guy. My montra in my prior life as an District Ops Manager was "In God we trust...all others bring data!" I was alittle surprised to see the low numbers. I like to see a small snapshot of the industry... it helps me gauge immediate trends. The numbers I monitor, are what goes "under contract in the last 7 days". Today it was 59. January had an average of 75 per 7 days. (and Month to date was 149) This gives me an idea of what is potentially going to leave inventory. (unfortunately, even though you go under contract, doesn't always mean you make it to settlement) One of the other numbers I watch is the number of "new listings in the last 2 days". (don't ask why this one is only the last 2 days and the other is the last 7...that's the way I like to look at the list) But anyways, the listings today were 49 (usually about 60) with a month to date of 266. Either way you look at these numbers one is bigger than the other. This is a tell-tale sign that the inventory will climb. (this does not mean the sky is falling) The total inventory is 1108. (everything but rentals) I did see a small spike in sales last month, but this month seems to be a little sluggish. The snow may have had alot to do with it... or the small increase in interest rates. Only time will tell.

Gotta Start somewhere

This is, hopefully, the first of many blogs. I plan on making this blog as interesting as possible about the local market conditions, events and activities in and around Frederick County Maryland. I also intend to post some interesting links that I may come across.

But, let me preface this blog with a disclaimer about me, I can be a cynic, a critic and sarcastic. By no means do I ever intend to intentionally offend anyone, but sometimes that happens. And here I will offer that apology now. I enjoy having fun. So, if there is anything that I will try to do, is educate in a most humorous and entertaining way. I always enjoy feedback, so please feel free to comment. Please check back for more.